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Sonora Co · Premium network driving growthUpdate to review
Context
CompetitionBest-rated network, priced 20%33% above Monterrey Co.GrowthRevenue forecast 8%5% in FY27F, contract market share 31%.
Perspectives
Goldman SachsCustomers pay up for network quality.Morgan StanleyMonterrey Co will take subscribers from Sonora Co.
Forecast
| $B | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F |
|---|
| Subscribers (m) | | 20.620.4 | 22.221.4 |
| Revenue | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.611.1 |
| Revenue growth | 4% | 6%5% | 8%5% |
Subscribers (m)
19.8 FY25A, up 3%
Source
[1]FY2025 annual report, p. 42/230
We ended fiscal 2025 with 19.8 million contract subscribers, up 3% from the prior year.
Revenue
10.6 $B · FY26F, up 5%
= Subscribers · 20.4 × ARPU · 43.5 × 12
Perspectives
| $B | FY26F |
|---|
| Consensus | 10.7 |
| Guidance | 10.5 |
Snapshot history
| Aug-01 | Monterrey Co cut price by 10% | −0.2 | 10.6 |
| Jul-14 | Q2 earnings | +0.3 | 10.8 |
| Jun-03 | UBS report | −0.1 | 10.5 |
Context
CompetitionBest-rated network, priced 20% above Monterrey Co.GrowthRevenue forecast 7%8% in FY27F.
Perspectives
Goldman SachsCustomers pay up for network quality.
Forecast
| $B | FY25A | FY26F | FY27F |
|---|
| Subscribers (m) | | 20.220.6 | 21.622.2 |
| Revenue | 10.2 | 10.5 | 11.211.6 |
| Revenue growth | 4% | 3%6% | 7%8% |
Subscribers (m)
19.8 FY25A, up 3%
Source
[1]FY2025 annual report, p. 42/230
We ended fiscal 2025 with 19.8 million contract subscribers, up 3% from the prior year.
Revenue
10.8 $B · FY26F, up 6%
= Subscribers · 20.6 × ARPU · 43.5 × 12
Perspectives
| $B | FY26F |
|---|
| Consensus | 10.7 |
| Guidance | 10.5 |
Snapshot history
| Jul-14 | Q2 earnings | +0.3 | 10.8 |
| Jun-03 | UBS report | −0.1 | 10.5 |
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Sonora Co · Update log
Updates and your decisions
| Date | Update | Decision |
|---|
| Aug-01 | Monterrey Co cut price by 10%
FY26F subscribers 20.6m 20.4m; revenue $10.8B $10.6B | Update to review |
| Jul-14 | Q2 earnings
FY26F subscribers 20.2m 20.6m; revenue $10.5B $10.8B | Update accepted |
| Jun-03 | UBS report: mobile market growth slowing
FY26F revenue $10.6B $10.5B; FY27F revenue growth 8% 6%RevisionFY27F revenue growth 8% 7%CommentThe market is slowing, but Sonora Co is winning market share. | Update revised |
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PDFp. 860% of the subscriber base
Web page
Premium plan prices cut 10%